Thursday, December 9, 2010

True AI is Almost Here


So my prediction stands, and the general culture is about to get a shock in three to five years.

My guess is that 95% of people will not be ready for this when it happens.  Most probably won't understand the cultural consequences, even if they could appreciate the technical significance.

We are about to create a whole other race of super-intelligent aliens.  A hierarchy will form and these aliens will be included in our society (or should I say we will be included in theirs?).

This is going to be disruptive.  Extremely disruptive.  Just from an economics perspective, a lot of the 'white collar' jobs will now be open to mechanization.  Hopefully information workers (of which I am one) will prove more flexible than their blue-collar counterparts.

This will be great fun for those of us who can adapt.  It will set free our creativity and allow us to create on a scale we can barely imagine today.  With an army of truly 'virtual' virtual assistants what business or purely artistic goal will be out of reach?

This will truly suck for those who are unable or unwilling to embrace the new environment.  The fact is that boring uncreative jobs are going away.  They will never go away entirely, but they will become harder and harder to find.  I also wonder how people who won't accept even relatively simple cultural shocks like the belief in evolution, are going to deal with 'people who are not human'.  Will a future 'Defense of Marriage' act be amended to keep people from marrying their non-biological partners?  And the most serious question of all:  what will this do to the tax code? :)

I really see this as a positive change for humanity overall.  We continue to free ourselves of tasks which in themselves don't lend much to the fun of being human.  Throw into the bargain that everything will get cheaper and better, and the future looks bright indeed (for those who are bold enough to change with the times).

I invision this as the beginning of the 'industrial revolution' for information.  Steam power multiplied man's ability to multiply his physical labor.  AI power will multiply our ability to accomplish intellectual tasks.

Will you or I be up to the challenge?

No comments: